9. Foresight

In short, foresight is a set of methods to improve our anticipation of what would otherwise be unexpected.

Resources providing an overall introduction to foresight:

• The Foresight Guide by John M. Smart and colleagues
• (More pending)

9.1 When forecasts were mistaken

9.2 Forecasters and superforecasters

9.3 The purpose of scenarios

The example of the Mont Fleur scenarios project, South Africa, 1992:

Analysis of the purpose of scenarios:

9.4 Identifying trends that have the potential to cause disruption

9.5 The factors behind potential exponential change

9.6 Identifying potential accelerators – and brakes – for trends

9.7 Establishing “canary signals” for advance warning of tipping points

9.8 How trends can combine to form breakthrough scenarios

9.9 Examples of interconnections producing unforeseen scenarios

9.10 Using imagination to anticipate novel scenarios

9.11 Methods to evaluate the credibility of imagined scenarios

9.12 Methods to evaluate the desirability of imagined scenarios

9.13 Methods to assess actions to influence the actual course of scenarios

9.14 Precautionary and proactionary approaches to risk and opportunity

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